People overthink; language models over-sample, and the extra effort can talk both into a worse answer. Reasoning systems answer a hard question by sampling it many times (test-time scaling), and the more they draw, the more often a correct answer turns up somewhere, so coverage, the fraction of problems with at least one correct try, climbs and appears to be progress. But a deployed system must return one answer, and choosing it, not knowing which try is right, is selection; selection is capped, and past a point extra samples only make the model surer of a confident mistake, even as every draw adds cost. The gap between climbing coverage and stalled selection, the identifiability gap, is the answer a model can produce but not pick. So the real question is not whether to sample but how far, and the answer is: not far. For picking an answer, the vote has already settled within a few dozen draws, the modal ceiling; for scoring a benchmark, sooner still, the correlation ceiling. Beyond that, extra draws cost compute and add nothing, and can even make the answer worse. This paper turns the cutoff into a single number, the effective number of samples, that any sampling run already reveals. The bottleneck is recognizing a right answer, not generating one.

Multispecies spatial data arise in many applications where interactions between different entities are central to system behaviour, including biomedical imaging, geospatial analysis, and species ecology. Despite their importance, relatively few quantitative tools exist to capture such interactions. In this work, we propose magnitude-based features for the analysis of multispecies spatial data. Magnitude is a real-valued invariant of finite metric spaces that can be interpreted as an effective number of points, incorporating both spatial configuration and scale. We develop global and local magnitude feature vectors and demonstrate their utility on synthetic tumour microenvironment data, and in tissue microarray data from human colorectal cancer samples. Locally, the method identifies distinct neighbourhood types and reveals spatial heterogeneity; in the model, this includes radial patterns associated with different qualitative outcomes of the simulations, while in the real-world data it reflects the importance of tertiary lymphoid structure-like interactions between B and T cell populations. Globally, the approach recovers known classifications of long-term simulation outcomes across parameter regimes in synthetic data, and suggests important roles for CD4+ T cells and CD163+ macrophages in distinguishing patients with favourable Crohn's like reactions from unfavourable diffuse immune infiltration. Together, these results suggest that magnitude-based features provide a powerful and flexible tool for the analysis of multispecies spatial data.

In this work, we analyze alternative effective sample size (ESS) metrics for importance sampling algorithms, and discuss a possible extended range of applications. We show the relationship between the ESS expressions used in the literature and two entropy families, the Rényi and Tsallis entropy. The Rényi entropy is connected to the Huggins-Roy's ESS family introduced in \cite{Huggins15}. We prove that that all the ESS functions included in the Huggins-Roy's family fulfill all the desirable theoretical conditions. We analyzed and remark the connections with several other fields, such as the Hill numbers introduced in ecology, the Gini inequality coefficient employed in economics, and the Gini impurity index used mainly in machine learning, to name a few. Finally, by numerical simulations, we study the performance of different ESS expressions contained in the previous ESS families in terms of approximation of the theoretical ESS definition, and show the application of ESS formulas in a variable selection problem.

We study the dynamics and implicit bias of gradient flow (GF) on univariate ReLU neural networks with a single hidden layer in a binary classification setting. We show that when the labels are determined by the sign of a target network with $r$ neurons, with high probability over the initialization of the network and the sampling of the dataset, GF converges in direction (suitably defined) to a network achieving perfect training accuracy and having at most $\mathcal{O}(r)$ linear regions, implying a generalization bound. Unlike many other results in the literature, under an additional assumption on the distribution of the data, our result holds even for mild over-parameterization, where the width is $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(r)$ and independent of the sample size.

The residual pathway of Eq. (10) was originally in Finzi et al. [2021a] for general groups Similar to the original residual pathway paper [Finzi et al., 2021a], we could also write linear Further, we give an extension for group convolutional layers. First, we split up the definition from Eq. (5): y ( c For sparsified factored layers S-FC, we extend the K-FAC approximation for factored layers. Similarly to above, we use the existing derivation to approximate KFAC in terms of Jacobians w.r.t. Table 4: Analysis of learned layer types after training FC+CONV model on CIFAR-10. Prior precisions learned for the CONV+FC model are shown on the left in Table 4.

Hyperparameters greatly impact models' capabilities; however, modern models are too large for extensive search. Instead, researchers design recipes that train well across scales based on their understanding of the hyperparameters. Despite this importance, few tools exist for understanding the hyperparameter loss surface. We discover novel structure in it and propose a new theory yielding such tools. The loss surface is complex, but as you approach the optimum simple structure emerges. It becomes characterized by a few basic features, like its effective dimension and the best possible loss. To uncover this asymptotic regime, we develop a novel technique based on random search. Within this regime, the best scores from random search take on a new distribution we discover. Its parameters are exactly the features defining the loss surface in the asymptotic regime. From these features, we derive a new asymptotic law for random search that can explain and extrapolate its convergence. These new tools enable new analyses, such as confidence intervals for the best possible performance or determining the effective number of hyperparameters. We make these tools available at https://github.com/nicholaslourie/opda .